Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.8pp below current market price; market at 6% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -7.4% ↓, S&P -0.1% ↓, DXY +0.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$234
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
4% / 7%
Spread
2.80pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $234 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 2.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656687
This event has 89 active outcome markets. Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the f: 67%, Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in th: 63%, turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvi: 42%.
turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian preside
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+6.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this