Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.8pp below current market price; market at 24% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -7.4% ↓, S&P -0.1% ↓, DXY +0.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
23% / 26%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
25%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?" at 25% YES / 75% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 25%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 25%, NO 75%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656688
This event has 89 active outcome markets. Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the f: 67%, Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in th: 63%, turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvi: 42%.
turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian preside
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+2.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this