Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.9pp below current market price; market at 40% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -7.4% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$982
Liquidity
$21K
Bid / Ask
39% / 42%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
41%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?" at 41% YES / 59% NO. In the last 24 hours, $982 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 41%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 41%, NO 59%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1665869
This event has 89 active outcome markets. Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the f: 76%, Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in th: 63%, turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvi: 42%.
Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this