Will another outcome occur in the the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.9pp below current market price; market at 12% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -7.4% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
11% / 14%
Spread
3.40pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will another outcome occur in the the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 3.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will another outcome occur in the the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1665874
This event has 89 active outcome markets. Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the f: 76%, Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in th: 63%, turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvi: 42%.
another outcome occur in the the first round of the 202
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Backtest Strategy
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