Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.9pp below current market price; market at 34% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -7.4% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$739
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
32% / 37%
Spread
4.30pp
Expert Signal
34%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?" at 34% YES / 66% NO. In the last 24 hours, $739 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 34%. The bid-ask spread is 4.30 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 34%, NO 66%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1665868
This event has 89 active outcome markets. Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the f: 76%, Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in th: 63%, turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvi: 42%.
Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian
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Backtest Strategy
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